On Friday, Asian stock markets exhibited a patchwork of performance as investors eagerly anticipated the release of U.S. personal spending figures for November, scheduled for later in the day. Meanwhile, U.S. futures and oil prices experienced a decline. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 remained stable at 38,810.26 following the unveiling of November's inflation data. Japan's core inflation rate, which does not account for fresh food prices, saw a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, exceeding market expectations.
This data came on the heels of the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.25%, a move that bolstered the dollar's value against the yen. Early on Friday, the dollar was trading at 157.11 yen, down slightly from 157.43 yen but still above the 150 yen average seen earlier this month.
The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong inched up by 0.1% to 19,774.22, while the Shanghai Composite index in China climbed by 0.5% to 3,388.22, after the country's central bank decided to keep its loan prime rates unchanged. The one-year lending rate, which influences corporate and most household loans, stayed at 3.1%, and the five-year rate, a key benchmark for mortgage rates, remained at 3.6%. Conversely, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index dipped by 1.3% to 8,061.40, and South Korea's Kospi index fell by 1.7% to 2,393.60.
Looking back at Thursday's performance, the S&P 500 index inched down by 0.1% to 5,867.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by less than 0.1% to 42,342.24, recovering slightly from Wednesday's significant drop of 1,123 points. The Nasdaq composite index also slipped by 0.1% to 19,372.77. Despite the week's market fluctuations, which have tempered some of the bullish sentiment, indices are still hovering near record highs. The S&P 500 is poised for one of its most successful years of the millennium, with a projected gain of 23%.
Traders are now forecasting that the Federal Reserve will likely implement only one or two interest rate cuts in the coming year, with some even speculating that there may be no cuts at all. This is a stark contrast to a month ago when the majority expected at least two cuts in 2025 as a near certainty. Wall Street typically favors lower interest rates as they stimulate the economy and boost investment values, but they can also exacerbate inflationary pressures.
Treasury yields fluctuated after a significant rise on expectations that the Fed would reduce the number of rate cuts in 2025. Economic reports from the U.S. were mixed. One report indicated that the overall economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.1% during the summer, outpacing initial estimates. Despite the Fed's previous maintenance of a two-decade high interest rate, the economy has shown remarkable resilience. Another report revealed that fewer U.S. workers filed for unemployment benefits last week, signaling a continued robust job market. However, a third report surprisingly, despite economists' expectations of growth, the manufacturing industry in the Mid Atlantic region has once again experienced contraction.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.57% from 4.52% late Wednesday and from below 4.20% earlier this month. Meanwhile, the two-year yield, which more closely aligns with expectations for immediate Fed action, retreated to 4.31% from 4.35%.
In other financial activities, U.S. benchmark crude oil fell by 27 cents to $68.96 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped by 42 cents to $72.46 per barrel. The euro declined to $1.0359 from $1.0367.
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